What does 2022 hold in store for Oldham Athletic?
Oldham Athletic end 2021 at the foot of the English Football League. Of the 92 clubs that make up English football’s league structure (Premier League and Football League), Oldham are 92nd. It is a truly abject position to be in, particularly after 23 matches when no other club in the division has played that many games.
Is it possible to hold out hope? In those 23 matches, of which 14 have ended in defeat, and during which there has been endless trouble and problems off the field, are there any grounds for optimism?
For many fans, that answer is no: we’re already as good as down. And it’s easy to see why, given how the current season has unravelled.
The reality is there will be no new owner in place, and it looks less and less likely a replacement manager/head coach will be employed, leaving the hugely inexperienced Selim Benachour at the helm at undoubtedly the point in the club’s history its League history is most under threat.
While the club finished second bottom in 1959/60, at that point the bottom four in Division Four sought re-election, and there wasn’t the automatic relegation that there is now. Gateshead, who finished third bottom, were not re-elected but Oldham, Hartlepool and Southport were all re-elected and hence survived. It was a closed shop back then, so hard to get into, and also easier to survive in. The amassed ranks of ex-Football League clubs in the National League attest to this.
How are things looking for the rest of the season? One way to do this is to simulate the rest of the season, and see how often, in various alternative realities, Oldham (and/or others) suffer relegation. I simulate matches by modelling historical matches based on the Elo strengths of the home and away teams (a very similar to the method used on this website). That gives a lot of different realities, all based, in a reasonable way, on reality. I create a thousand different realities, and then look at how often different outcomes occur.
I calculate the final league tables, and then tot up how often clubs finish in each position. This gives, when divided by a thousand, a rough probability of teams achieving particular positions — and hence achieving things, be it promotion for the lucky, or relegation for Latics.
The grid below gives the probability, from 1000 replications of “reality”, that a team achieves a particular position.
Hence Forest Green, who have established a strong position at the top, have an 81% chance of being League Two Champions — and a 97% chance of winning promotion.
But at the bottom, where any Oldham fan’s attention is usually, unfortunately, directly, things look less clear, thankfully. Only a bit less clear, though. It’s easy to lapse into thinking that our relegation has already been sealed after losing 1–3 at home to nearest rivals Scunthorpe. But despite that, there’s still only a 67% chance that Oldham are relegated — according to this simulation.
It turns out that that isn’t massively out of line with bookmaker odds at the moment, according to Oddschecker.
It’s worth also emphasising that these are expressions of probabilities — so not saying anything (relegation, survival), is a certainty. Oldham could have a strong transfer window and appoint an experienced and astute manager, and steer well clear of danger. There’s about a 33% chance of that happening — a third. But equally, it’s likely they have a miserable window, and carry on with limp performances and end up relegated. Both are possible, and that’s kind of the point of this.
But at least it makes the point that, as yet, depressing as the situation is, our fate has yet to be sealed.
Here’s a table summarising the bigger table above:
