Updating the Euro 2020 Forecasts
The week before last I published some forecasts about the European Championships, using a simulation method. The beauty of the method is it can be re-run at any point, and indeed I updated after the first set of group games. As we’ve now completed the second round of group games, it’s a good moment to update again.
France surged a little off the back of beating Germany in their opening match (to 21% to win from 18%), but have shrunk back (19%) having struggled against Group F’s weakest team, Hungary this weekend. Some teams are mathematically in the Last 16 already (Italy, the Netherlands, Belgium), others by virtue of being in Groups E or F (Sweden and France).
Italy’s smooth progress so far has moved them up to 3rd favourites at 12%.
Much of the uncertainty surrounding the outcomes of the tournament will be removed once the last 16 line-up is established, and that is determined not just by who finishes first and second, but also by the ranking of third placed teams. The top four third placed teams qualify, but in our simulations we have rigged this slightly to favour the teams in Groups E and F, since by the time they play on Wednesday, they will know exactly what is required to finish third and still qualify.
At the moment, for example, it is still possible for England to finish third — they would need to lose sufficiently heavily to the Czech Republic, and Scotland (not Croatia since England beat Croatia) win by sufficiently many goals against Croatia to finish above England in second place in the group. In about 0.7% of simulations, this did actually happen. Small, but non-zero chance. Ironically, of course, should that happen, England will go to Glasgow for their last 16 match. Much more likely is England play at Wembley (54%) or Copenhagen (45%).
