Oldham Athletic: The Actual Half Term Report

After drawing 1–1 at Walsall, the half-way point of the 46-game season has been reached. After 23 games, Oldham are 16th in League Two. They’ve won 8 games, drawn just 4, and lost 11.

Given that the first three games of the season were lost in fairly abysmal fashion, that means it’s won 8, lost 8 since then.

From a general perspective, it’s very hard to draw conclusions after the first half of a Covid-dominated season. How might things have been different had fans been in the stadium? There’s evidence that the absence of fans reduces home advantage, but surely that can’t explain the fact that Oldham have lost 9 and home and only two away all season.

The upturn in form after that deeply worrying start to the season raised hopes, as the team played some sensational football at times. We should be able to hope for a promotion campaign — when was the last one? However, what in the last three years should give us reasonable basis for hoping for one?

There’s a belief that because of the stature of the club, and what it has achieved in its history, that this should matter, and hence things should be a particular way. But this is a club that has been mismanaged for decades, slumping from the Premier League days down to the current state of affairs.

It’s never possible to know everything that goes on at a club, and football clubs can be particularly good at opaque messaging. But that is part of being part of a competitive environment — the club can’t give too much away, since its rivals will be listening in. I think it is better to afford people the benefit of the doubt. Sometimes it feels hard with the current owner, but despite a string of seemingly strange decisions, and public statements, it remains that sufficient funds have been made available to construct a team that has significant attacking prowess — surely testament to the influence of an attack-minded coach like Harry Kewell.

It’s a team pulled together from various sources, and not always the ones that make fans groan. But one of those sources has produced easily the sensation of the season so far — Frenchman Dylan Bahamboula. A player with literally no track record, leaving fans to understandably be wary when he was announced. But two goals, numerous assists, and many, many more stepovers later, the doubters have been proved wrong.

A big part of that mismanagement over the years, very much including the current owner, has been a criminal level of turnover of managers. While it’s natural to question the judgement of a manager — they choose to put themselves in a position of high public scrutiny — the number of managers in recent years cannot have helped any semblance of stability, any basis on which to build a promotion campaign, to be formed.

After Dino Maamria was afford just 32 games, Laurent Banide a miserly 11, and Frankie Bunn a relatively generous 31 after Richie Wellens’s 43 (albeit spanning ownership reins), Harry Kewell appears to be a man in favour. Saturday at Walsall was his 33rd game in charge (including Forest Green). It’s hard to argue that he hasn’t been able to bring in his men, and pick his team — a constant worry under previous management.

Of course, given the utterly abject home form, there have been the usual calls for his head. But he’s put together a vastly different squad from that of Dino Maamria. It’s a squad that can play football. They are naive at times, not closing out games, not getting points that they should get. But with the ball, and when the understanding is there, they’ve shown great potential.

And all that in spite of the second wave of Covid, which has led to a very unpredictable campaign, with many teams forced to postpone many games. A threadbare existence for most lower league clubs, and yet in spite of that, Latics have produced some truly memorable moments this year. A goals per game record on the road that we’ve never come close to matching in 125 previous years of trying.

So, what about that record so far. In the league it’s 11 defeats to 8 wins, but with wins in cup competitions, Kewell’s overall record is won 14, drawn 4, lost 14, plus the abandoned “draw” at Forest Green.

Here’s my term card, colour coded in blue:

In the Difficulty column, a lower number is a harder match, and that’s a darker blue. In the Outcome column, a darker shade of blue is a better result for Latics. In the Goals and Conceded column, the more goals, the darker blue. In the Surprise column, the darker blue, the better a surprise from Oldham’s perspective. Hence the win at Exeter is the darkest blue, followed by the home win over Cheltenham and the win at Newport.

The darker blue all came in November and December, with no wins since mid-December now. One pattern in the first half of the season was playing almost all of the stronger teams away from home. In the second half, they all come to Boundary Park, where Oldham have won 2, and lost 9. But before Oldham went to these stronger sides and won, their away record was nothing special. It’s possible that they can beat these sides at home too, and repair some of that lousy record on their own turf, as they did against Cheltenham.

At the moment, it would seem that the Latics have a reasonably good position. A manager who plays the way the fans would like us to play — assuming we could get into the ground to watch— score one more than the opposition. The defence causes headaches, for sure, as does the inability to do basic things all too often. But it’s a manager clearly favoured by the ownership. And while it would be nice to have a campaign chasing the top half of the table, perhaps that is something that’s a little too much to be expected given the instability of the last 5–10 years.

I’d personally take this season, and another of Kewell. The right kind of football, and a man in Kewell seemingly able to inspire impressive things from players. Given the ownership’s support, next season could (emphasis on could) be one where we finally make a decent challenge at promotion.