Oldham Athletic hosting Salford City, January 30

I have to confess, I’m not massively enthused by this afternoon’s match, the fourth ever, between Oldham Athletic and Salford City.

It will be (I think, from Soccerbase data) Oldham’s 3,820th league match, and Salford’s 62nd. But that disparity means next to nothing, in reality. Salford are six points better off than Oldham, and have won two of the three matches between the sides since they joined the league in 2019, and the single match so far at Boundary Park (4–1 on December 29 2019).

Newport have a 42% win record this season (10 from 24) and are hence in seventh place. They have a solid defence, conceding the fewest in League Two (19), whilst Oldham have conceded the most (45).

Oldham’s win record is 36% this season (9 from 25), and that is remarkably similar to their overall league win record throughout those 3,819 matches — 35%, or 1,347 out of 3,819.

Below is a summary, with slightly out of date information (we’re 15th). I give Salford a 46% chance of automatic promotion, whilst Oldham have a 1% chance. Oldham have a 1.19 expected goals, Salford 1.42.

Oldham are 32% to win, bookmakers say we’re 31% (on average, from Oddsportal), Salford I think are 42% to win, bookmakers say 38%.

Either way, they are favourites…