Oldham Athletic at Walsall

Oldham go to Walsall today. It’s another trip on the road for League Two’s best performing away side (up to now). It follows on from yet more home defeats — a team with six away wins to two defeats has just two home wins to nine home defeats. And overall form less good, with an FA Cup defeat, a disappointing draw at Grimsby and a poor performance in an abandoned game at Forest Green.

Are Latics experiencing a dry January? It wouldn’t be the first, as the last three Januarys Oldham have won fewer points than in the December that came before.

But Walsall are also in poor form, losing three on the bounce. But Walsall did win at Boundary Park, as eight other teams have done in 2020–2021 so far. This is Oldham’s first trip to a team they’ve already faced at home this season. Will that make a difference?

Here’s Oldham’s league position and Walsall’s, over the last two years, and back to the first match up between the teams, in 1936. A lower position is better (2nd vs 22nd). Walsall are 3 points and 5 positions better off currently, though as in advance of the home match in December, they come into the game on a poor run.

Oldham’s away form in terms of results has been unusual this season. So has their goalscoring. Half way through the season, their goals per game record is better than in their entire history — and certainly much better than any season since 2000–2001. See below:

What are the likely outcomes this afternoon? I’ve put together the table below, which includes bookmaker probabilities (Walsall 43% to win), my own model’s (45% Walsall chance). A 1–1 draw is the most likely outcome, and both teams seem highly likely to score.