Oldham Athletic at Bradford City
It must have been all of a few months since Oldham last faced their most familiar foes, Bradford City. Just under five, to be precise.
It’s the 117th meeting between the two sides, 30 miles apart by driving (see above), whose fates have somehow have seemed intertwined since 1907, the year of their first encounter with each other.
That first match, in September 1907, was won by Bradford at Valley Parade by the only goal of the game. Since then, Bradford have won a further 33 matches against Oldham whilst losing 48, with the other 34 matches being drawn. In that time, Oldham have scored 174 goals, and Bradford 143.
Overall record: Played 116, Oldham wins 48, Bradford wins 34, 34 draws. Oldham goals 174, Bradford goals 143.
It’s a fixture that’s occurred in fits and spurts, with a 72 of the matches occurring before 1963, but then 20 coming since 2010 with a spate of cup matches in recent years.
Oldham are unbeaten in 5 in all competitions against Bradford, going back to a 3–0 defeat in August 2019, and indeed that was Bradford’s only win in the last ten matches back to October 2017, a run that has seen Oldham win seven and draw two.
Record at Valley Parade: Played 59, Oldham wins 18, Bradford wins 21, 20 draws. Oldham goals 74, Bradford goals 82.
Both teams have undergone significant changes in the last 12 months, with Bradford at first struggling significantly, and Oldham’s three quick-fire wins over the Bantams in late 2020 put paid to manager Stuart McCall before a post-Christmas renaissance even led to play-off hopes that were eventually snuffed out.
Oldham, under 14th new head coach since Lee Johnson, Harry Kewell, had a mirror image Autumn 2020, starting badly before improving significantly, before fading into the second half of the season, resulting in Kewell’s being replaced by Keith Curle in March.
Curle, as 15th new head coach since Lee Johnson, has had 16 matches and 160 days so far. No coach has managed more than Ritchie Wellens’s 43 in charge since Lee Johnson, nor John Sheridan’s 255 days in his most recent spell as head coach.
Curle, as the first manager since Sheridan in 2017 to enjoy the luxury of an entire closed season in charge, has presided over 12 acquisitions this summer that have significantly increased the experience (105 matches per head to last season’s 88). Bradford have recruited under League Two promotion expert Derek Adams, and have significantly more experience (165 appearances per head) and goal threat (21 per player) than the Latics (8 per player). Oldham’s goal threat is naturally lower because of last seasons’s 21-goal top scorer Conor McAleny’s departure to Salford.
So, given all of that, what is likely to happen this afternoon? The table below contains all of our forecasts, except for my code’s inability to cope with the wobbly Sutton and Salford switching venues has thrown at it (to be updated, I hope), for League Two:
Hence, as would be expected for a team with more experience and more goal threat, aided by home advantage, and the management track record of Adams, Bradford are favourites. The bookies have Bradford 51% to win, Oldham just 21%, on average (taken from Oddsportal on Thursday — it’s since moved to 56% and 22%, please gamble responsibly!).
My model gives Oldham a little bit more chance — Bradford at 45% to Oldham’s 29%, but it’s clear Bradford are favourites. Both teams do maintain a goal threat, but Bradford’s is about a third of a goal greater — which matters in a low scoring sport like football, allied with home advantage.
However, as (almost) always, the most likely score is a 1–1 draw. That’s 12.4% likely to happen. I suspect most in the likely large Oldham following today will quite happily take that draw.
