Football on Fridays
Tonight there will be a few football matches in England. One in the Premier League, one in the Championship, and two in League Two. One of the two League Two matches has motivated me most, since it involves my team, Oldham Athletic, hosting the hapless (but surely victorious given that) Colchester United.
It’s Oldham’s first league match at home on a Friday night since 2009, a miserable 3–0 defeat by Hartlepool. In fact, since the turn of the millennium, Oldham have played a sum total of three home matches on a Friday — a non bank holiday Friday, that is. All the Oldham matches are shown below in screenshots. A mere 23 home matches over the years on a Friday night.
Other teams have made much more of a habit of it — Tranmere most notably, with 383 league and cup Friday night matches at home, Stockport County on 351, and Southend United on 310.
Friday night football has appeal — perhaps fans will turn out because it’s a Friday and it’s something to do — perhaps the first stop on a great night out. Certainly, Fridays are different to midweek matches. Terrorising the wonderful 11v11 data source, when controlling for all sorts of explanatory factors for attendances, they are down 10% for midweek matches relative to weekend matches (tables to be tweeted — Medium seems to be playing funny buggers with adding tables currently). People are busy, a lot on during the week.
But on Friday night it’s different. On Fridays, there’s the ever so slight whiff of a positive effect — about 2.6%, although not hugely significant when we’re looking at over 170,000 football matches over a very long period of time.
What about outcomes, though? Does the home team win more often? Certainly, in Oldham’s case, Fridays in the mid- to late-1980s were great — of the 8 matches played back then (against Charlton in 1985, Millwall in 1986, Reading in 1987, Crystal Palace twice in 1988, Shrewsbury and Blackburn in 1989 and Plymouth in 1990), seven were won, with a solitary loss to Palace at the very end of 1989 (not this match but some great photos here).
However, the statistical evidence isn’t hugely strong (tables to be tweeted). Again, there’s the slightest hint that the home team wins a tiny little more often (0.5 percentage points) in midweek, but not on Fridays.
So, play on Friday nights for slightly higher attendances, and the ever so slightly increased chance that you might win matches. What’s not to like?
Of course, all of this relates to a non-Covid time when fans can attend football matches, and go out on a Friday night…
But on Friday night it’s different. On Fridays, there’s the ever so slight whiff of a positive effect — about 2.6%, although not hugely significant when we’re looking at over 170,000 football matches over a very long period of time.
What about outcomes, though? Does the home team win more often? Certainly, in Oldham’s case, Fridays in the mid- to late-1980s were great — of the 8 matches played back then (against Charlton in 1985, Millwall in 1986, Reading in 1987, Crystal Palace twice in 1988, Shrewsbury and Blackburn in 1989 and Plymouth in 1990), seven were won, with a solitary loss to Palace at the very end of 1989 (not this match but some great photos here).
However, the statistical evidence isn’t hugely strong. Again, there’s the slightest hint that the home team wins a tiny little more often (0.5 percentage points) in midweek, but not on Fridays.
